Thank you George Noble, Deacon Brantley, Philip Reschke, The Madam Finance, 我不是股神, and many others for tuning into my live video with The Private Ledger! If you can please share this recap, it will help more of us to receive the invite to join us for our next live video in the app.
Gravity always wins.
In today’s Substack Live we looked back at the forces every investor eventually meets: the pull of a hot IPO and the pull of a shiny metal. Here is what is discussed in the live video:
SpaceX went public at a $1.77 trillion valuation, rose above $200 and promptly fell 35%. The median analyst target of $282 implies a $3.5 trillion company. That sits between Microsoft and Google, for a business that lost $2.6 billion last year. There is no P/E and no EBITDA to anchor to, because there are no profits. Even granting a 7x revenue ramp by 2030 and margins the company has never posted, the median target still trades at 152x future earnings. The S&P trades at 22.
The IPO buyer refuses to miss a paper gain. The gold holder refuses to book a paper loss. Same psychology, opposite directions. Both mistake sentiment for fundamentals. We cover this piece by The Private Ledger.
Gold tells the mirror-image story. The bull case is real: central bank buying, debasement, no counterparty risk. The bear case is simpler: it pays you nothing, and “the fundamentals haven’t changed” is exactly what a bag-holder says on the way down.
And because it’s July, our World Cup call: Argentina over Spain on Sunday for me. Messi gets the farewell. Gravity, apparently, does not apply to him. While The Private Ledger goes for Spain. Newton was right after all :)
